The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) published an analysis on October 13, 2026, projecting that fossil fuel generation could reclaim market share levels unseen since the early 2010s if current dispatch patterns continue. The report attributes a slowdown in clean power growth from its 2024 peak to shifting federal policies and surging electricity demand, which are driving utilities toward natural gas and coal.
What it means
EDF data indicates that planned natural gas capacity now rivals solar and wind output when adjusted for capacity factors. This shift coincides with a decline in fossil fuel project cancellations, which fell in 2024 and stayed low through the first half of 2026. Conversely, clean energy cancellations have risen since 2022, with nearly 5% of a planned 281.7 gigawatts scrapped in 2025 alone.
Federal policy changes, including coal subsidies and the repeal of greenhouse gas regulations, are incentivizing fossil fuel deployment. The Trump administration has also issued emergency orders to extend coal plant operations and funded new facilities. David Villagrana noted that “rising gas turbine costs and supply shortages are already making new gas plants more expensive and slower to build.” He added that wind and solar “don’t require fuel purchases, helping protect consumers from price swings.”
A Wood Mackenzie analysis from October 8 warned of a gas capacity supply deficit through the late 2030s due to data center load growth. Meanwhile, an Energy Innovation study from June estimated that a repeat of 2022’s coal and gas price spikes would add $40.5 billion annually to electricity costs under a fossil-heavy scenario. Villagrana stated that Iran war impacts have primarily pressured gasoline and diesel prices rather than U.S. natural gas.
The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA), introduced in the Senate on September 30, seeks to protect existing energy permits from revocation and speed federal permitting by altering the National Environmental Policy Act. The Sierra Club criticized the bill for weakening environmental laws, while Citizens’ Climate Lobby supported it.
Key facts
- EDF report released October 13, 2026
- Fossil fuel market share could return to early 2010s levels
- Clean power growth slowed from 2024 peak
- Nearly 5% of planned 281.7 GW clean energy deployment canceled in 2025
- Fossil fuel project cancellations dropped in 2024 and remained low through first half of 2026
- Wood Mackenzie analysis dated October 8 projects gas capacity supply deficit through late 2030s
- BAAJA introduced in Senate on September 30
- Energy Innovation June analysis estimates $40.5 billion annual cost increase under fossil fuel-heavy scenario with price spikes
Source: Environmental Defense Fund report