The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Alaska crude oil production will rise by 60,000 barrels per day, or 13%, to 505,000 b/d in 2027. The agency also forecasts a 23,000 b/d, or 6%, increase in 2026. Two North Slope projects are driving the production growth, including Pikka Phase 1, which began operating in the third quarter of 2026.
What it means
The 2027 forecast would put Alaska crude production at its highest level since 2014. The projected annual increases in 2026 and 2027 would be the largest expected for Alaska since the 1980s.
Alaska production rose 4% in the third quarter of 2026, the first third-quarter increase in more than 40 years. Output commonly falls during late summer because of annual maintenance; from 2021 through 2025, late-summer production averaged 7% below first-quarter levels.
Key facts
- Alaska crude production is forecast at 505,000 b/d in 2027.
- The 2027 forecast is 60,000 b/d, or 13%, above 2026 output.
- The 2026 forecast calls for a 23,000 b/d, or 6%, increase.
- Pikka Phase 1 entered service in the third quarter of 2026.
- Third-quarter 2026 production increased 4%.
- Alaska crude production peaked at 2.0 million b/d.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook